2017 Economic Calendar
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Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey  
Released On 7/20/2017 8:30:00 AM For Jul, 2017
PriorConsensusConsensus RangeActual
General Business Conditions Index - Level27.6 22.0 15.0  to 34.2 19.5 

Highlights
There finally may be cracks appearing in Philly Fed which has, since the election, been signaling break-out strength for the Mid-Atlantic manufacturing sector. The general conditions index looks solid at 19.5, still very strong though down from 27.6 in June and the least robust result since November. But details -- which in this report are not reflected in the headline index -- are the flattest since late last year.

New orders, at only 2.1, are down more than 20 points in the month for the worst reading since August last year. Unfilled orders show better strength at 7.2 but are still the weakest since December. Employment, at 10.9, is also the softest since December as are selling prices, at 9.0. Shipments, still strong at 12.2, are at the lowest rate of month-to-month growth since September last year with the workweek, still positive at 3.8, the lowest since November.

This report has been a puzzle all along, signaling post-election strength that was not matched at all by the national factory sector where growth has been no better than moderate. Though indications in today's data still point to growth, they definitely are pointing to slowing which could either signal that this report is falling into line with actual national growth or, possibly, that national growth may be pivoting lower. In any case, this report is based on a small volunteer sample from only one area of the country.

Recent History Of This Indicator
Growth in the factory sector is uneven but strength in the Philadelphia Fed index has been exceptional. The index came in at 27.6 in June with Econoday's July consensus at 22.0. Order readings are at extraordinary levels in what points to overheating for the sample's respondents.

Definition
The general conditions index from this business outlook survey is a diffusion index of manufacturing conditions within the Philadelphia Federal Reserve district. This survey, widely followed as an indicator of manufacturing sector trends, is correlated with the ISM manufacturing index and the index of industrial production.  Why Investors Care
 
[Chart]
The Philadelphia Fed's business outlook survey is a good leading indicator for the index of industrial production. It is reported in the third week of the month and thus has a lead time of nearly three weeks.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
 
 

2017 Release Schedule
Released On: 1/192/163/164/205/186/157/208/179/2110/1911/1612/21
Release For: JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
 


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